Polymarket Bets Spark Nobel Prize Leak Investigation

The Nobel Committee is probing a potential security breach after prediction market Polymarket accurately forecasted the 2025 Peace Prize winner hours before the official announcement. Suspicion arose when betting volumes surged precisely at midnight Oslo time, suggesting insider information may have been leaked.

A trader identified only as "6741" turned a $1,200 wager into $50,000 by placing aggressive bets on underdog candidate Maria Corina Machado 12 hours before the announcement. The anonymous account's activity triggered a market frenzy, driving Machado's odds from 5% to 70% within two hours. Another user, "GayPride," capitalized on the anomalous movement to secure $85,000 in profits.

Polymarket's unregulated offshore status complicates potential insider trading investigations. The platform remains accessible to U.S. users despite regulatory prohibitions, creating a jurisdictional gray area for such market-moving events.